Can Israel’s PM Netanyahu benefit from the conflict with Iran?
In March, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu backed out of a ceasefire that was proving to be effective. At that time, some analysts described this decision of the Israeli PM as ‘political suicide’.
Before the start of the second term of US President Donald Trump (swearing-in), a ceasefire agreement was signed between Gaza and Israel under the mediation of his representative Steve Witkoff. Due to this agreement, dozens of hostages were released from Hamas’ captivity in exchange for hundreds of Palestinians from Israeli jails.
The ceasefire was to see more hostages returned to Israel, while Israeli troops were planned to withdraw from Gaza, before a negotiated end to the war.
Tired of the conflict, Israelis and Palestinians were thinking about ending the most destructive war in history. But Benjamin Netanyahu did not want an end to the war.
Ordering a resumption of attacks in Gaza, Netanyahu declared that the fighting would continue until Hamas was “completely destroyed”.
His announcement indicated that the safe return of the remaining hostages in Gaza was not his first priority. (It was difficult to even imagine what would happen to the Palestinians in Gaza.)
Many Israelis, especially the families of the hostages, were angered by this decision.
Netanyahu was accused of prioritising his political survival over the safety of the hostages and the interests of the country.
Did not get majority in last election
Netanyahu’s popularity declined in the last elections, he did not get a majority. He formed the government with the support of radical ministers from right-wing and orthodox religious parties.
Three months later, Netanyahu is enjoying a major military victory against his enemy Iran. He is now said to be considering early elections and another term as prime minister.
75-year-old Netanyahu is already the longest-serving leader of Israel. He said in a recent press conference that he still has ‘many missions’ to complete and he will try to do so as long as the people of Israel want him to.
Earlier this week, Netanyahu presented the alleged collapse of Iran’s nuclear program as an “opportunity” and indicated he was not about to miss it.
Netanyahu indicated that only he could ensure the “release of the hostages and the defeat of Hamas”, and that he would then move towards a comprehensive regional agreement.
But holding early elections could prove to be a big risk for him. According to the latest survey, the 12-day conflict with Iran has not benefited Netanyahu as much as he had hoped.
According to a recent survey by the Ma’ariv newspaper, a coalition is crucial to forming a government in the 120-seat Israeli parliament and Netanyahu’s party may fail to achieve a majority on its own.
Not only this, Netanyahu may also have to struggle to garner support from small right-wing parties. The survey revealed that 59 percent of Israelis want the fighting in Gaza to stop now in exchange for the release of hostages.
Of those who took part in the survey, 49 percent believe that the reason for the continuation of the war is Netanyahu’s own politics.
“The man (Netanyahu) is a very skilled political actor. There is no other politician in Israel who is as skilled,” says Professor Tamar Herman, a senior research fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute.
But, he says that ‘winning trust’ is a big problem for Netanyahu.
Professor Tamar says that most Israelis do not trust a politician who has changed his position several times to remain in power.
The Israel Democracy Institute is going to release this survey soon. According to it, “Netanyahu will not be able to cross even the 50 percent mark in terms of Israelis trusting or partially trusting him.”
Professor Tamar says, “In many ways, the decision to hold early elections is even more risky for Netanyahu than attacking Iran, because in the Middle East you don’t really know where you will be in six months.”
“This is because despite the success of his military gamble in Iran, there is still an elephant in the corner of Netanyahu’s living room,” he says, gesturing. “You could say a small herd of elephants could hamper the prime minister’s hopes of another term.”
Netanyahu got Trump’s support
Next week, Netanyahu is due to testify in a high-profile criminal case in which he is accused of political corruption, including bribery and fraud.
Netanyahu’s attempts to delay the High Court hearing due to his busy schedule and the special emergency (over the Iran war) were rejected last weekend.
Netanyahu and his supporters have repeatedly tried to portray the legal case against him as part of a “politically motivated vendetta”.
But his opponents are equally determined, saying Netanyahu must face justice.
After learning about Netanyahu’s legal troubles, President Trump called him a ‘great hero’ and a ‘warrior’. Trump said his case should be dismissed immediately or he should be pardoned.
This is the same US President who just a few days ago publicly denounced the Israeli Prime Minister because he feared that the ceasefire agreement with Iran could collapse before it even began.
But many in Israel described Trump’s latest intervention as unwise and unnecessary.
Opposition leader Yair Lapid said they should not interfere in the legal process of an independent state.
“His blatantly contradictory stance on Israel and his attempt to interfere in Netanyahu’s legal case is tantamount to treating us as a banana republic,” says Professor Herman.
But the road is not easy for Netanyahu
Many Israelis internationally accuse Netanyahu of harming Israel’s global standing and economic prospects by unnecessarily prolonging the war in Gaza.
Even though several former generals have said that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have achieved all that was possible militarily in Gaza.
It should also not be forgotten that the International Criminal Court has issued warrants against Prime Minister Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Galant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. More than 55 thousand people have died so far in Israel’s war against Hamas.
Netanyahu, Yoav Galant and the Israeli government have denied these allegations.
Finally, most analysts believe that it will be difficult to think about new elections in Israel if the war in Gaza continues and Israeli hostages are not released.
But while many of Netanyahu’s critics and opponents have prematurely dismissed him over the past few years, they have certainly learned that they should not be suspicious of Netanyahu’s next move.
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